Escape False Demands: Three True Signals to Grasp Industry Trends

Let's start with a correction: the real industry trend is not about social media hot search terms, but a shift in the underlying logic of user behavior. Most people fall into the trap of "false demands"—for instance, when the sharing economy was booming, many followers lost everything by ignoring real scenarios. To see true trends, watch for three signals.

Signal One: Actions Users "Go Out of Their Way" to Complete

Relying only on reports often leads to misjudgment. The first principle is to go back to users' own words and alternative behaviors. For example, a smart home startup initially thought users wanted "control", but later found that users frequently used the "one-touch off for the whole house when leaving" feature. This stems from people's anxiety about safety and energy consumption, far from the pursuit of tech showmanship. Rather than asking users, observe how they bypass existing product flaws.

Signal Two: "Abnormal" Responses from the Upstream Supply Chain

When certain orders show characteristics of "small batch, high frequency, and urgent delivery", the upstream often senses the anomaly before the downstream. In 2023, a sensor manufacturer noticed a surge in mid-to-long-term orders for medical devices while consumer electronics demand was weak, allowing them to allocate capacity six months ahead and gain an edge when health monitoring boomed. Upstream feedback is often the earliest ripple of a trend.

Data reveals: A research institute tracked five "trends" between 2018 and 2023, four of which had supply chain anomaly signals 12 months before they emerged.

Signal Three: "Silent" Adjustments in Regulations and Policies

Policy is either an accelerator or a brake for trends. In 2019, when new ride-hailing regulations were introduced, beyond compliance, more automakers sensed the flavor of "transportation as a service", pivoting to the B2B market, which proved to be an increasingly broad path. Instead of chasing the news, carefully read the changes in modifiers within documents.

Counterintuitive Insight: Trend Is Not "the Future Has Arrived", but "the Past Has Left"

Most trends are the afterglow of old habits being polished by new technology. For instance, with cashless payments, the key is not the payment method but the removal of the "pain point" of carrying change. When looking at trends, ask: In which links have old models failed? The point of failure is the coordinate of the new trend.

Conclusion: Don't Let False Demands Waste Your Bets

When judging trends, don't use "I think" anymore. Look more at users' clumsy methods, listen to the metallic sounds from the upstream, and read the fine print in policies. True trends will reveal themselves. Next time someone talks about a "windfall opportunity", ask first: Where is the data? Where is the scenario? Who is actually using it?